Favourable macro front and tight supply resonated, causing copper prices to fall first and then rise last Friday evening [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

SMM reported on June 30: On the evening of last Friday, LME copper opened at $9,848/mt. After an initial rise, it fluctuated downward and touched a low of $9,823.5/mt, then fluctuated upward all the way and touched a high of $9,883/mt near the close. It finally closed at $9,879/mt, down by 0.17%, with trading volume reaching 18,000 lots and open interest reaching 292,000 lots. On the evening of last Friday, the most-traded SHFE copper 2508 contract opened at 79,520 yuan/mt. It immediately touched a low of 79,500 yuan/mt after the opening, then fluctuated upward all the way and touched a high of 79,990 yuan/mt near the close. It finally closed at 79,920 yuan/mt, up by 0.23%, with trading volume reaching 39,000 lots and open interest reaching 213,000 lots. On the macro side, Trump announced that a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel was close to being reached and might be implemented within a week. The US dollar index plunged and turned negative in the short term, and copper prices first fell and then rose. It was also reported that Trump might appoint Powell's successor in the coming months, exacerbating the weakness of the US dollar and being bullish for copper prices. On the fundamental side, from the supply side, smelters planned to increase export efforts, making the spot market even tighter. On the demand side, as copper prices surged to a high level, although spot premiums opened high and trading stabilized at a high level during the day, most transactions were made by traders. Downstream purchases were constrained by high copper prices, and it was expected that spot premiums would have limited upside room from the current level. On the price side, Trump stated that the July 9 deadline set for trade negotiations was not fixed. If no agreement was reached, the US would re-impose broader tariffs. The uncertainty of trade policies disrupted the market, but in the short term, the weakness of the US dollar index would boost copper prices.